Interpretation of by-elections from the perspective of reservation, youth and jobs

Various explanations of the reasons for BJP’s defeat in Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha by-elections are being presented. The funniest explanation in this is that Modi deliberately defeated this election to keep Yogi and Maurya in position. By the way, the interpreters also say that Modi’s popularity has not decreased and he will win the 2019 elections with a huge majority like last time.

But is Modi still intact and is there really no challenge before him? In response, all ‘if’, ‘but’ are connected but it is certain that if one or two of many ‘if’, ‘but’ is also correct, then the next Lok Sabha election will be very difficult for Modi.

If we talk about including the Lok Sabha result of Araria, then it is not just a matter of three Lok Sabha seats but it becomes a matter of 134 seats in which BJP alliance currently has 119 seats. The BJP alone has 107 seats. If you add and subtract mathematics properly, BJP has got only 167 seats from all over the country!

Analyzing The LoopHoles

To understand the defeat of the by-elections, we have to go through the pre-Mandal era because till we get a glimpse into the history, it will be difficult to understand the BJP’s defeat in the by-elections. When VP Singh implemented the Mandal Commission recommendation, its sole purpose was to provide reservation in jobs.

As time changed, the definitions of the Mandal Commission’s recommendations also changed. The matter went beyond reservation in jobs to participation in power. The purpose of reservation is no longer just how much employment the backward got, but reservation is defined as how much backward and Dalit participation in power.

If we see Lalu Yadav’s successive victories in Bihar in the early years of Mandal, then we should try to understand why Lalu-Rabri continued to win elections for 15 years without guaranteeing employment? Similarly, despite being at the pinnacle of the Ram temple movement, why did the alliance between Kanshi Ram and Mulayam succeed in completely defeating polarized Hindutva? We should also try to understand that despite the separation of Mulayam and Kanshi Ram-Mayawati, why the BJP could not get a clear majority till the last assembly election?

If we look at the political and social equation after Mandal’s implementation, it was a period of dominance of backward and Dalits in North Indian politics. For the first time, due to the political battle, awareness among the backwardes was increasing and they were struggling for participation in power. All the nobles of Mandal politics stood together under the flag of the same party – Janata Dal.

But the differences between people like Lalu Yadav, Sharad Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Ram Vilas Paswan slowly started growing so much that it became difficult to stay with them. Out of this flag, first Mulayam Singh Yadav came out, followed by Ram Vilas Paswan, then Sharad Yadav and Lalu Yadav came out last. Janata Dal’s family was completely shattered.

All the leaders of Mandal politics were constantly getting away from the society for their own benefit. His first priority was to cultivate his and his family’s interests. The hypothesis of social justice had completely disappeared at the behavioral level.

Nevertheless, the steps taken in the initial period of power had already moved a little further towards social justice, but all had lost their luster. The younger generation of Dalit-backward people of that era understood the meaning of the struggle for social justice. He was aware of how many generations before him had fought for participation in power.

But as time went on, the hollowness of the leaders who gave the slogan of social justice was clearly visible. Due to lack of vision, corruption and nepotism was reaching its peak. On the one hand, there was no positive change in the field of education and health, on the other hand people were not getting employment either.

BJP’s success

The BJP first caught this faultline in the society, understood it and started airing the social contradiction in the society through ‘social engineering’. In Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, a gap between Jatavs and other Dalits began to be created between Yadavs and other backward classes.

An atmosphere was created against the Yadavs and Jatavs that only Yadavs have got the benefit of reservation in backward, whereas the Jatavs have taken full advantage of this among the Dalits. Since the jobs were not available and due to Lalu-Rabri-Mulayam and Mayawati being in power, even if they got a few jobs, then comparatively only those people of both communities were getting more jobs. BJP caught this weakness and kept giving it continuous air.

The result was that even before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, an important group like Dalit and Backward had completely disintegrated, it was no longer a group. If there was anything left, then there was only ethnic structure in which people of all castes were trying to get political participation at their convenience.

The BJP which was looking very weak during the Anna movement. After Narendra Modi’s 2012 Assembly victory in Gujarat, an atmosphere was created in the country that if a leader has a vision, then his name is Narendra Modi and he has the ‘Gujarat model’. Also, in every election meeting of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Modi declared himself as ‘backward of small caste’ and leader of backward, in addition to countless promises.

On the one hand, there was disappointment with their leaders in the wider Bahujan society, on the other hand they had great vision of their community.

It was seen as Modi who had the ‘Gujarat model’. Therefore, backward castes and Dalits all over North India also voted for Modi in large numbers including Yadav and Jatav. It was mainly a young voter.

When Modi became the Prime Minister, the Bahujan community wanted to see his unseen Gujarat model emerge throughout the country. He felt that the ‘development box’ would open for him, but nothing happened. Meanwhile, in the year 2006, the foundation of Mandal-2 in the educational field was laid by Arjun Singh. He implemented 27 per cent reservation for backward schools and colleges. The quota of reservation is not implemented, it has been imposed in various ways, which the backward student communities were watching and understanding, yet within three years, the number of Dalits and backward in the entire Central University has crossed 50 per cent. Has gone. The generation that reached the university for the first time through reservation was ready for employment in the next two-three years. But he was not getting employment.

Rohit Vemula’s suicide at the University of Hyderabad opened the eyes of Dalits and Backwards. There was a continuous cut in government jobs during Modi’s rule. Education and health budgets were cut every year during Modi’s rule, jobs were reduced. The educated and backward and Dalits who voted for Modi as backward or ‘their’ gradually started to understand that this government is not really for them. An example of this can be seen in the election of universities where BJP or RSS student organization lost elections in every university in the last three years.

Even before and after becoming the Prime Minister, BJP and Narendra Modi accused most of the non-BJP leaders including Lalu Yadav and Mayawati of corruption, but when the same non-BJP leader joined the BJP, silence was taken against it while the BJP did not surrender. The investigation process against the perpetrators of Lalu Yadav and Mayawati continues unabated.

These conditions created such a state of mind among those communities where people started seeing black in lentils. The educated community of Dalit-Bahujans who voted for Modi started feeling disappointed. On the other hand, his continued involvement in power continued to decrease. If you read Kistof Zefferlaw and Giles Verniers article ‘The Representation Gap’ in ‘Indian Express’, many surprising things can be understood.

After the implementation of Mandal, the number of backward MPs in Parliament has steadily increased and in 2004, the number of backward MPs in the Lok Sabha had gone up to 26 per cent, which decreased to less than 20 per cent in 2014. While the number of upper castes continued to decline after Mandal’s induction, the 2014 Lok Sabha brought a different picture. The number of upper caste MPs increased to 45 percent. The same situation has happened to the MLAs in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar Legislative Assemblies.

The results of Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Araria Lok Sabha by-elections indicate that the third round of Mandal politics is beginning. Whose leadership has gone into the hands of young, student communities, not leaders this time. Many leaders of backward ‘surnames’ are still in BJP, but under pressure of educated students and youths, they have failed to get their community’s vote for BJP.

This is the reason that in 2015, Lalu Yadav, along with Nitish Kumar, announced Mandal II in which the BJP was defeated badly. But after separating from Lalu, Nitish has again joined the BJP. But the Dalit-Bahujan voters have rejected it. The second example can be seen as that neither any leader of Mayawati-Akhilesh or SP-BSP held a joint press conference nor held a joint public meeting or rally, yet the entire vote went against BJP and BJP The Chief Minister Yogi and Deputy Chief Minister Maurya lost the coveted seats.